Study: 700 million people are expected to develop diabetes in ten years

Study: 700 million people are expected to develop diabetes in ten years

More and more diabetes cases in low and middle income countries
For World Health Day 2016, doctors from the World Health Organization (WHO) were at least able to make a reliable prediction: the original goal of keeping diabetes prevalence at the same level as in 2010 in 2025 cannot be achieved. The number of people suffering from diabetes will continue to increase. In 2025, the number of adult diabetics is expected to exceed 700 million worldwide, according to the WHO.

Diabetes continues to advance worldwide. By 2025, there are likely to be over 700 million adults with diabetes. A recent study by Imperial College London researchers found that by 2025, around 12.8 percent of men and 10.4 percent of women will have diabetes. The scientists published the results of their study in "The Lancet".

More and more people around the world suffer from diabetes
The new global assessment of the development of diabetes found that the number of adult diabetics was 422 million in 2014. In 1980, the figure was 108 million diabetics worldwide, the researchers say. The forecast for 2025 also shows no improvement. By then, over 700 million people around the world will probably have diabetes, the doctors explain. Among other things, the disease increases the risk of suffering a heart attack or stroke by two to four times.

About 15 percent of all people in the Middle East and North Africa have diabetes
Between 1980 and 2014, the prevalence of male diabetes doubled in 120 countries, the researchers said. Diabetes among women has doubled in 87 countries. Nowhere during this period could it be observed that diabetes rates dropped significantly, the experts add. In 1980, more women than men suffered from diabetes. In 2014, more men were already affected by diabetes. In the islands of Polynesia and Micronesia, one in four adults have diabetes, the scientists report. This corresponds to an increase of around 15 percent since 1980. In the countries of the Middle East and North America, a total of almost 15 percent of all people are affected.

Diabetes causes incredibly high economic costs worldwide
In 1980 European countries with higher incomes were still at the forefront of the number of diabetes diseases. These included, for example, Germany, Italy and Great Britain. They had already lost their “leadership” in 2014 and countries with low to medium incomes such as Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico and Egypt were now home to more people with diabetes, explains lead author Professor Majid Ezzati from Imperial College London. In 2014 alone, the economic cost of diabetes was estimated by the experts at around $ 825 billion. Countries such as China, the United States, Japan and India had the greatest economic costs. However, low and middle income countries account for about 60 percent of all costs. This is where the prevalence of diabetes increases the most, the experts explain.

Health systems need to rethink and intervene more effectively
The ever increasing number of adult diabetics is also due to the growth of the world population and increasing life expectancy. But the surge in diabetes seems to be triggered primarily by the spread of obesity and obesity, as well as the widespread lack of exercise, the doctors suspect. The authors noted that some of the areas where the number of diabetes has increased significantly are populated by people who have an increased genetic susceptibility to diabetes. Or those affected would experience growth patterns in their childhood that pose a higher risk of developing diabetes in adulthood. Health systems should intervene in a more targeted and effective way to prevent the growing risk of diabetes in adults, the researchers advise. If the current trends continue, the goals of the World Health Organization (WHO) for 2025 will most likely not be able to be implemented at all. (as)

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